Basic summary:  
I've had acceptable gains from  GE, IBM, JNJ,  and Wrigley, though only one company, JNJ, doubled in the 5yr period.
HSY and MRK were also held for the full 5 year period.  CHV and MSFT were only added in 2001.  

Monopoly Portfolio

Kerry's Monopoly 1st quarter    2002            03/29/02
ticker    purchase    close    shares    mkt value         cost              %gain
                       
CHV      $84.75       90.27      167         $15,075.09     $14,153.25     6.51%
GE         $23.24       37.45       852        $31,907.40      $19,800.48    61.14%
HSY      $45.62       68.54       200         $13,708.00     $9,124.00      50.24%
IBM       $58.62      104          326.42    $33,947.68      $19,134.74    77.41%
JNJ        $28.75       64.95      360          $23,382.00     $10,350.00    125.91%
MRK     $46.62       57.58      200          $11,516.00      $9,324.00      23.51%
MSFT    $63.25       60.31      73           $4,402.63        $4,617.25       -4.65%
WWY    $29.94       53.31      320         $17,059.20      $9,580.80        78.06%
           
                         total mkt v    $150,998.00       
                         cash              $1,012.10       
                         pay on this    $152,010.10       
The dividends over 5 yrs have been approximately  $10k and are reinvested regularly.               
    Dividends                               
    1st q                       2nd q                 3rd q           4th q        
  PerShare    total    PrShare    total    PrShare    total           
    0.65      $108.55        $0.00        $0.00        0.00
    0.18      $153.36        $0.00        $0.00        0.00   
    0.303    $60.60          $0.00        $0.00        0.00   
    0.14      $45.70          $0.00        $0.00        0.00   
    0.18      $64.80          $0.00        $0.00        0.00   
    0.35      $70.00          $0.00        $0.00        0.00   
    0           $0.00              0             $0.00        0.00   
    0.19      $60.80          $0.00        $0.00        0.00   
                                                                                    Cash    starting bal    $448.29                                
total divs   $563.81                                                                                       $563.81
                                                                                               total cash    $1,012.10


1. 3-97: bought dad's recommendations except for msft and boeing.
rose 50% in  15 months and then stagnated.  Here is the chart.

Chart3
Here are MSFT and BA's charts for that time period.
BA

msft

So MSFT  almost tripled  which cost the portfolio approximately $20,000 in gains.  See  the mistake section for an approximate total dollar figure of mistakes.  I would still make the same decision if given the opportunity. I based the decision on the antitrust actions brought by the states and the US government.  If the Federal Government had remained under a similiar administration after the 2000 presidential election I suspect the value of MSFT would be dramatically less.


2. sold intel and aa for ibm - (june 1 98).  This trade cost the portfolio approximately $4,000.  It has been even, and has been as much as $20,000 behind.  IBM has never been worth more than if I had continued to hold AA and INTC.  Bad trade.  I based the decision on the belief that the Merced/Pentium 4 would not sell, and it didn't, but it didn't seem to affect Intels earnings.  And the aluminum industry did not suffer as badly as some analysts were predicting.  

aa intc

ibm


3. sold coke for more ge (10/98)
  This trade saved the portfolio approximately $1500 dollars which is how much KO is down for the 5 year period.  The GE shares are even since the trade.  I based this trade on KO's lack of movement in 2yrs and analysts predictions that growth for the company would continue to be slow.  Unfortunately GE also has growth problems.  Even so I consider this a mildly successful trade and will continue to hold GE in the hopes that a spinoff of one of their divisions will be successful.

ko
ge
4. sold g for sunw - (nov 8 99)

I  sold g for similiar reasons as ko.  I bought sunw watched it rise but I did not notice the fall.  I have set alerts up so that  I will not  hold a stock if it falls 25% from its 52 week high.  I finally sold sunw later.  This $10,000 dollar investment is worth $4,400 dollars today.  See the mistake section.
g

sunw

5. sold du for cvx (jan 2001)
Based this sell again on analysts opinions and reports.  Bought cvx because their chart looked better than Shell's or Exxon's, and I wanted an oil company because my own feelings that there will be an energy crisis,  because of the current administrations policies.  dd has remained about where I sold it, cvx is up 6%. This is a  mildly successful trade so far.
dd
cvx

6. sold sunw for msft (nov 2001)
I put msft in the portfolio because they have been declared a monopoly by the government.  And I feel they will continue to use their market power until the current  President is replaced.  I could've bought a company called SEIC Investments that was recommended by Value Line.  They hold the IRA money for alot of the medium and small mutual funds, PBHG, Strong, etc.
They have a good balance sheet and a nice sloping chart with regular splits.  It reminded me of MBNA.  But  with a market cap of  only $4 billion I felt like they were too small.  SEIC is up $27% in the last 6 months! I intend to continue to monitor Value Lines recommendations and purchase one for the portfolio.
seic

Mistake Section


If i had only......
1. bought msft and sold 1/1/2000 +20k
2. kept aa and intc  +4k
3. sold sunw in 8/2000 +15k
4. bought seic instead of msft in 2001.  +$2000.

I  probably wouldn't have doubled regardless of my trades.  None of my trades were based on financial or fundamentals.  All the companies I sold or bought have strong balance sheets, established markets, ability to service their debt, and cash.  I thought that by holding large-cap, "blue-chip" stocks that I would not have to monitor the portfolio closely and that has generally been true.  If I had not sold g, ko, dd, intc, and aa the portfolio would be approximately the same value as it is.  

Below is a comparison of Monopoly's indicators vs. the S&P 500 averages.  

Employees price %
ave.
projected
long-term
ave.
P/E Qrtly
TTM Over TTM


change
monthly
P/E
growth
recommedation
excluding
Price to
Sales


4 weeks
volume
12 mo.
rate

extraordinary
Book
Change%
monopoly
109071 -4.37 319.334    24.61 12.28     2.19 32.1 6.58 2.2
S & P
  41818 -1.86 73.603    28.72 13.94     2.22 48.62 4.85 4.59

3 yr Sales
TTM  3 yr.EPS
Qrtly TTM operating TTM return

growth
EPS growth rate
LT Debt to
margin
on equity

rate
Change% %
equity


monopoly
11.47    -10.23 11.82 0.42 16.02 22.38
S & P
14.39     16.37 11.67 1.15 10.31 8.97

Based on these averages the portfolio is slightly lower than the S&P averages in growth rates and sales changes, and P/E.  However the return on equity, operating margin, and debt are significately better.  This is a low-risk, slow moving portfolio that could use a little more volatility.  

Summary
The portfolio did not double in value in the last 5 years but all the holdings are sound fundamentally and financially.  For these reasons I believe there is a good chance that they will appreciate in the future.  How much appreciation is not known.  The past record indicates it will take another 5 years for this portfolio to double which is slightly worse that the historical average of the Dow which is 11%.  I will continue to monitor these large-caps for stagnation. Future possible problems are GE, IBM, and MSFT's growth ability, and other sectors like banking (southwest bancshares), or retail, (walmart)that may offer better growth potential.

I enjoyed this job. Although I  must consider myself a "bear",  I will concern myself more with financial indicators and fundamentals and less with rumor and opinions. There are opportunities in the large-cap companies.

Kerry Kelley. p.s. you have to click twice on close and once on the "x" to close the banner.