I've had acceptable gains from GE, IBM,
JNJ, and Wrigley, though only one company, JNJ, doubled in the 5yr
HSY and MRK were also held for the full 5 year period. CHV and
MSFT were only added in 2001.
Monopoly 1st quarter 2002
purchase close shares mkt
total mkt v $150,998.00
pay on this
The dividends over 5 yrs
have been approximately $10k and are reinvested
3rd q 4th
total PrShare total
Cash starting bal
1. 3-97: bought dad's
recommendations except for msft and boeing.
rose 50% in 15 months and
then stagnated. Here is the chart.
Here are MSFT and BA's charts for that time period.
So MSFT almost tripled which cost the portfolio
approximately $20,000 in gains. See the mistake section for an
approximate total dollar figure of mistakes. I would still make the same
decision if given the opportunity. I based the decision on the antitrust actions
brought by the states and the US government. If the Federal Government had
remained under a similiar administration after the 2000 presidential election I
suspect the value of MSFT would be dramatically less.
2. sold intel
and aa for ibm - (june 1 98). This trade cost the portfolio approximately
$4,000. It has been even, and has been as much as $20,000 behind.
IBM has never been worth more than if I had continued to hold AA and INTC.
Bad trade. I based the decision on the belief that the
Merced/Pentium 4 would not sell, and it didn't, but it didn't seem to affect
Intels earnings. And the aluminum industry did not suffer as badly as some
analysts were predicting.
3. sold coke for more ge (10/98)
This trade saved the
portfolio approximately $1500 dollars which is how much KO is down for the 5
year period. The GE shares are even since the trade. I based this
trade on KO's lack of movement in 2yrs and analysts predictions that growth for
the company would continue to be slow. Unfortunately GE also has growth
problems. Even so I consider this a mildly successful trade and will
continue to hold GE in the hopes that a spinoff of one of their divisions will
4. sold g for sunw - (nov 8 99)
I sold g for
similiar reasons as ko. I bought sunw watched it rise but I did not notice
the fall. I have set alerts up so that I will not hold a stock
if it falls 25% from its 52 week high. I finally sold sunw later.
This $10,000 dollar investment is worth $4,400 dollars today. See
the mistake section.
5. sold du for cvx (jan 2001)
Based this sell again on analysts
opinions and reports. Bought cvx because their chart looked better than
Shell's or Exxon's, and I wanted an oil company because my own feelings that
there will be an energy crisis, because of the current administrations
policies. dd has remained about where I sold it, cvx is up 6%. This is
a mildly successful trade so far.
6. sold sunw for msft (nov 2001)
I put msft in the
portfolio because they have been declared a monopoly by the government.
And I feel they will continue to use their market power until the current
President is replaced. I could've bought a company called SEIC
Investments that was recommended by Value Line. They hold the IRA money
for alot of the medium and small mutual funds, PBHG, Strong, etc.
They have a
good balance sheet and a nice sloping chart with regular splits. It
reminded me of MBNA. But with a market cap of only $4 billion
I felt like they were too small. SEIC is up $27% in the last 6 months! I
intend to continue to monitor Value Lines recommendations and purchase one for
If i had only......
msft and sold 1/1/2000 +20k
2. kept aa and intc +4k
3. sold sunw in
4. bought seic instead of msft in 2001. +$2000.
probably wouldn't have doubled regardless of my trades. None of my
trades were based on financial or fundamentals. All the companies I sold
or bought have strong balance sheets, established markets, ability to service
their debt, and cash. I thought that by holding large-cap, "blue-chip"
stocks that I would not have to monitor the portfolio closely and that has
generally been true. If I had not sold g, ko, dd, intc, and aa the
portfolio would be approximately the same value as it is.
is a comparison of Monopoly's indicators vs. the S&P 500 averages.
||TTM Over TTM|
|S & P
||3 yr Sales
||LT Debt to
|S & P
Based on these averages the
portfolio is slightly lower than the S&P averages in growth rates and sales
changes, and P/E. However the return on equity, operating margin, and debt
are significately better. This is a low-risk, slow moving portfolio that
could use a little more volatility.
portfolio did not double in value in the last 5 years but all the holdings are
sound fundamentally and financially. For these reasons I believe there is
a good chance that they will appreciate in the future. How much
appreciation is not known. The past record indicates it will take another
5 years for this portfolio to double which is slightly worse that the historical
average of the Dow which is 11%. I will continue to monitor these
large-caps for stagnation. Future possible problems are GE, IBM, and MSFT's
growth ability, and other sectors like banking (southwest bancshares), or
retail, (walmart)that may offer better growth potential.
I enjoyed this
job. Although I must consider myself a "bear", I will concern myself
more with financial indicators and fundamentals and less with rumor and
opinions. There are opportunities in the large-cap companies.
Kelley. p.s. you have to click twice on close and once on the "x" to close the